Both once the CBOE future expired and today, once the CME bitcoin future is originating settlement, there is an important decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a good low volume and i also would reckon that they’re dominated by a single liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex trading maker is most likely short the long run and perchance long lots of. At expiry, they’ll profit if the cost is low this will let you border after settlement in the event the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a very bad settlement processes which can be easy to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a young using a small volume generally.
CME’s model is better, but nonetheless not very good, VWAP for the four major exchanges is a great idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the volume on this kind of brief span of time is quite limited. Even though many large participants would have interests in different of the settlement processes they’d most likely have similar position and benefits from precisely the same side with the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over hrs instead). The conclusion is always that we likely will see a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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