Both once the CBOE future expired now, in the event the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there is a substantial decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a serious low volume and I would reckon that they’re dominated by a unitary liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is probably short the longer term and perchance long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if the price is low where you can border after settlement when the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which are all to easy to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a tender using a small volume more often than not.
CME’s model is way better, but still of low quality, VWAP around the four major exchanges is a good idea, in case that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the volume on a real brief span of time is extremely limited. Even when many large participants may have interests in a of the settlement processes they’d more than likely have the same position and advantages from exactly the same side of the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over hrs instead). The conclusion is that we likely will discover a lots of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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