Both if the CBOE future expired and from now on, when the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there were a substantial decline in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and I would reckon that they’re covered with a unitary liquidity provider\/market maker. The forex market maker is most likely short the near future and perchance long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit when the cost is low this will let you border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an incredibly bad settlement processes which might be an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a young using a tiny volume generally.
CME’s model is much better, but still not very good, VWAP around the four major exchanges is a good idea, but when that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the amount on a real brief span of time is extremely limited. Even when many large participants may have interests in different of those settlement processes they’d more than likely have the same position and advantages from precisely the same side of the market manipulation. The VWAP must have been calculated over hrs instead). The conclusion is that we likely will discover a great deal of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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